OnDeck and Ocrolus Cash-Flow Data Put Liquidity Ahead of Rate Talk
A May 1 OnDeck and Ocrolus report says 93% of surveyed SMBs expect growth, cash flow has surpassed inflation as the top concern, and more than 76% report bypassing traditional banks. The operator lesson for alternative lenders is to document liquidity timing, repayment evidence, and channel quality earlier in the file.
OnDeck and Ocrolus released a new small-business cash-flow report on May 1 with a useful tension for alternative-finance teams: owners are still planning for growth, but cash flow has moved ahead of inflation as the top operating concern. That is a market signal for funders, brokers, ISOs, and underwriting desks that rely on recent bank data, sales cadence, and working-capital demand. Report: OnDeck and Ocrolus Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report , released alongside Enova's May 1 announcement . Key numbers upfront 93% of surveyed small businesses expect growth over the next year. Cash flow is now the top concern at 31% , ahead of inflation at 29% . More than 76% reported bypassing traditional banks for capital, which the report describes as a survey all-time high. 46% said access to credit was the leading factor shaping strategy, ahead of consumer spending and interest rates. “Small businesses aren't slowing down ... they're planning ahead, investing in growth and finding new ways to operate more efficiently. At OnDeck, we're focused on helping them access the capital they need to keep that momentum going.” Cory Kampfer, Co-President of Small Business Lending at Enova, via Enova Investor Relations Signal 1: optimism is still high, but it is liquidity dependent The headline number is strong. OnDeck and Ocrolus said 93% of surveyed small businesses expect growth over the next year, and 32% expect significant growth. The survey covered 651 small businesses with working-capital loans and was paired with cash-flow data from more than 3.69 million small-business applications over a 15-month period. For an MCA, revenue-based-finance, or small-business lending desk, the useful read is not simply that owners are optimistic. It is that growth plans are being made while liquidity is the constraint. The report says access to credit was the leading factor shaping 2026 strategy at 46%, ahead of consumer spending and interest rates. “Access to credit was the leading factor shaping small business strategy (46%), followed by consumer spending (42%) and interest rates (35%), while external macro risks such as trade policy (14%) ranked lower in Q1 ... consistent with previous quarters.” OnDeck and Ocrolus, Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report Signal 2: cash flow moved ahead of inflation The report says cash flow became the top concern for small-business owners at 31%, passing inflation at 29%. That matters because a merchant can look healthy on top-line revenue and still need short-term capital if inventory, payroll timing, supplier terms, seasonality, or delayed receivables are absorbing cash. This is where alternative-finance operators should separate demand quality from demand volume. More applications tied to cash-flow pressure can be attractive, but only if the file shows enough daily balance resilience, revenue durability, and payment priority to survive the requested cadence. “For the first time, cash flow is the top concern for small businesses (31%), surpassing inflation (29%).” OnDeck and Ocrolus, Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report Signal 3: non-bank capital preference is no longer a side channel The report also says more than 76% of small businesses report bypassing traditional banks for capital, described as a survey all-time high. For brokers and funders, that supports what many desks already see in intake: borrowers often want speed, fit, flexible structures, and less friction before they compare bank-priced credit. The control question is whether the channel explains why the merchant is bypassing a bank. A clean answer is different from a weak one. A borrower that needs rapid inventory financing with strong deposits is different from a borrower that cannot document revenue, has excessive returned payments, or is stacking advances to cover older obligations. Operator read: convert the report into underwriting questions The numbers point to a practical intake shift. Underwriters should not treat cash-flow anxiety as an automatic decline factor, but they should force the file to explain the liquidity event and repayment path. Report signal Underwriting question Control to check High growth expectations Is the requested capital tied to a visible revenue opportunity or general liquidity stress? Match use of funds to deposits, inventory, contracts, invoices, or seasonality evidence. Cash flow is the top concern Is the cash gap temporary, recurring, or caused by existing debt service? Review daily balances, negative days, returned items, existing debits, and repayment priority. Bank bypass is rising Why does the borrower prefer non-bank capital? Document speed need, bank decline reason, credit box mismatch, or channel preference. AI usage is rising among SMBs Does the borrower have better operating visibility or just better application packaging? Compare stated projections with bank data, POS records, invoices, and actual expense cadence. Broker and ISO read: ask for the liquidity story earlier For broker and ISO teams, the report is a prompt to improve front-end notes. If a merchant says the money is for cash flow, the submission should say what changed, when it changes back, and what evidence supports the repayment cadence. Generic use-of-funds labels make the deal harder to price and easier to misroute. Capture whether the need is inventory, payroll timing, supplier terms, delayed receivables, tax timing, expansion, equipment, or ordinary expense coverage. Add a short source-of-repayment note: daily card sales, bank deposits, contract revenue, receivables, or seasonal uplift. Flag existing daily or weekly debits before submission, not after approval. Send clean bank statements and supporting invoices together so the desk can evaluate timing rather than guessing from balances alone. What to watch next The next useful signal is whether optimism holds if cash-flow ratios keep tightening. A confident borrower population can still produce weaker credit files if growth is being funded by thinner balances, credit-card minimums, delayed owner pay, or repeated short-term refinancing. “Whether it's adjusting pricing, exploring new suppliers, or leveraging AI, owners are making deliberate choices supported by better data and clearer visibility into their financial performance.” David Snitkof, General Manager of Small Business at Ocrolus, via Enova Investor Relations Opinion Cash-flow demand is an evidence problem, not just a pricing problem The better operating model is to make every cash-flow file prove its timing. If the merchant can show why the gap exists, what revenue supports repayment, and why the requested cadence is durable, the desk has room to price risk. If the file only says growth capital while balances are breaking down, the risk is already speaking. For Plutus readers, the takeaway is narrow and practical: current SMB demand appears strong, but underwriting discipline should move closer to cash-flow evidence, use-of-funds specificity, and channel-quality notes. Optimism can start a conversation. Bank data still has to carry the approval.